The nearly three-year-long war in Ukraine has tested the resolve of Western allies, with Britain and Europe repeatedly pledging to support Kyiv “for as long as it takes.” But that promise is about to collide with an uncomfortable reality. With Donald Trump set to return to the White House in January, his bold claim to end the war between Russia and Ukraine “in 24 hours” presents a dilemma no one seems ready to face. Do Britain and its European allies back a Trump-brokered peace deal, even if it comes with bitter terms, or prepare for the costly fallout of defying him?
The Trump Doctrine: A Shortcut to Betrayal?
Trump’s return to power has shifted the war narrative almost overnight. The debate has moved from “if” there could be a peace deal to “when.” But let’s be honest—there’s little reason to believe his plan would favor Ukraine. His promises hint at concessions that would be unthinkable: handing over occupied territories in the east, barring Ukraine from NATO, and possibly cutting off vital financial aid.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hasn’t minced words. The Ukrainian constitution explicitly forbids giving up any occupied territories, and Zelensky has reiterated his government won’t budge. Yet he also admitted, with painful candor, that Ukraine “does not have the strength to recover them.” It’s a precarious tightrope—one that could send Ukraine spiraling into further instability if Zelensky’s government is forced into accepting terms that the public sees as a betrayal.
Europe’s Impossible Choice
Trump’s impending peace plan forces Europe into a corner. Supporting a deal that undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty would amount to a betrayal of Western principles, emboldening Russia and leaving Kyiv exposed. But rejecting Trump’s terms would come at a steep price—one that Europe seems woefully unprepared to pay.
The Costs of Defiance:
- Military Resources: Years of underinvestment have left European arsenals depleted. Countries like Britain and Germany would struggle to resupply their own defenses, let alone send additional aid to Ukraine.
- Economic Pressures: Sustaining Ukraine’s resistance without U.S. backing would be an enormous financial burden, likely requiring unprecedented economic sacrifices from European nations.
- Public Sentiment: In Germany, public opinion is already tilting toward a peace settlement, no matter the terms. Convincing electorates to embrace prolonged military engagement—or worse, boots on the ground—feels increasingly out of reach.
Rejecting Trump’s plan could mean Europe going it alone in Ukraine. That might include sending troops to counter Russia—a move with profound political and logistical implications.
The Putin Problem: A Deal with the Devil
Let’s not forget the elephant in the room: Vladimir Putin. Trump’s confidence in his ability to broker peace ignores a glaring reality—Putin doesn’t play by the rules. Even if a deal is struck, there’s no guarantee he’ll honor it. Thinking Trump can single-handedly neutralize Putin’s threat is, frankly, naive.
A rushed peace deal risks handing Putin exactly what he wants: a weakened Ukraine and a fractured West. Worse, it sets a dangerous precedent that aggression pays off. Ukraine’s allies would do well to remember that diplomacy with Putin is a gamble where the house always wins.
The Road Ahead: Prepare or Capitulate
The right choice—for Ukraine, for Europe, for NATO—is clear: stand firm against Russian aggression. But clarity is one thing; preparation is another. Europe has spent years dodging the hard truths about what long-term support for Ukraine would entail. Now, those chickens are coming home to roost.
What Needs to Happen Now
Time is running out. If Europe wants to avoid being backed into a corner by Trump’s deal, it must act decisively:
- Ramp Up Defense Spending: British Foreign Secretary David Lammy has already sounded the alarm, urging NATO allies to increase defense budgets to three percent. The time for half-measures is over.
- Engage the Public: European leaders need to start having honest conversations with their citizens about the stakes. Sugarcoating the costs and risks won’t cut it anymore.
- Develop a Contingency Plan: What happens if Trump cuts off support? Europe needs a strategy—and fast—for sustaining Ukraine’s fight without American backing.
The choices made in the coming months will reverberate far beyond Ukraine’s borders. A weak or hasty peace deal risks not only betraying Kyiv but also inviting further aggression from Moscow. Pretending otherwise isn’t just foolish—it’s dangerous.