If Robert K. Merton, the founding father of American sociology, were alive today, he’d be fascinated by the Donald Trump phenomenon. Scarcely more than 50 days into his second presidential term, hapless Trump provides daily proofs of Merton’s universal “law of unintended consequences.”
Rooted in ignorance, error, willful blindness, and self-defeating prediction, Trump’s rash actions produce contradictory, harmful, and often opposite results to those he says he wants. The ensuing chaos characterizes what may become the briefest honeymoon in White House history.
Boomeranging Tariffs and Economic Turmoil
Boomeranging US tariffs – which are to American prosperity what the Titanic was to ocean travel – are the tip of the unintended consequences iceberg. Defiant foreign retaliation has brought stock market crashes and inflation fears – the exact opposite of what Trump promised voters.
Trump won a mandate to make America great again, not greater – at least, not territorially. After his threats to invade Canada, loyal subjects of King Charles III are up in arms, booing the Stars and Stripes, boycotting US goods, and retaliating with their own tariffs.
Single-handedly, Trump has revived the fortunes of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party. Under the new “elbows up” leadership of the former Bank of England chief Mark Carney, it has a good chance of winning this year’s election on an anti-Trump platform. That was not the plan.
Likewise, Greenland’s voters, stung by a proposed Putin-style imperialist annexation, told Trump to take a hike last week.
They are undecided about independence but definitely reject US (or Danish) domination. Had there been any tea to spare in Nuuk, they would surely have tossed Trump and it into the harbor.
Ukraine and a Failing Foreign Policy
Trump’s Ukraine surrender policy is another calamity. Russia is the aggressor, yet he punishes the victim. US pressure for a ceasefire is all one way – on Kyiv. This is emboldening Vladimir Putin to intensify attacks, notably in Kursk, while stringing muggins Trump along.
The prospective, unintended consequences of an unjust peace are the undeserved rehabilitation of Russia, de facto amnesty for Putin’s war crimes, a precedent-setting ceding of sovereign territory seized by force, and a deep US-Europe split.
So the question arises again: is this really unintended? Whether Trump is a stooge, KGB asset, or plain stupid was discussed here last week. Most probably, he has no real idea what he’s doing – or just doesn’t care.
How else to explain his belief that proving himself right about tariffs is worth starting a global recession? Or that the ethnic cleansing of two million Palestinians in Gaza can bring peace?
The Nuclear Domino Effect
Perhaps the scariest unlooked-for consequence of Trump’s serial blunders is accelerating nuclear weapons proliferation.
Alarmed by his threats to withdraw US protection and shocked at the betrayal of Ukraine, Germany, Poland, and South Korea are all urgently talking about obtaining an atomic bomb. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt have similar thoughts, for different reasons.
Trump claims to want a nuclear-free world. “His policies are having the opposite effect,” wrote the analyst WJ Hennigan. “Thanks to Mr. Trump… the perceived value of acquiring nuclear weapons among allies appears to have quickly gone up, while confidence in extended deterrence has gone down.”
Iran strikingly illustrates Trump’s ability to shoot himself in the foot, bone spurs or not. In his self-appointed role as godlike peace-giver, Trump told Tehran to restart nuclear talks – or else. His “bullying” has enraged Iran’s leaders. An Iranian nuke, and military confrontation with the US and Israel, is now more, not less likely.
The Musk-Vance Fiasco and European Backlash
Acolytes and hangers-on take their cue from the boss in his looking-glass land of self-inflicted cock-ups and risible own goals.
Vice-president JD Vance and technobrat Elon Musk gave European “liberals” a dressing-down last month and endorsed Germany’s far-right AfD party. The results are the reverse of what they expected.
German voters rejected the new fascists, Musk’s businesses are boycotted, and the EU is forging a united front against Trump and Putin both.
Ironically, the Vance-Musk standup act’s repellent backing for Russia has wrong-footed “fawning” European right-wing populists, including Britain’s Nigel Farage. Centrists like Keir Starmer are enjoying a “Trump bump.”
Trump’s Approval Ratings Slide
As Trump careers uncontrollably towards the 100-day mark, his approval ratings slide. He is already less popular than Joe Biden was at a similar stage. His honeymoon is history.
Before November’s election, he claimed, falsely, that America was in an unprecedented mess. Such exaggeration is what Merton, who coined the phrase, called a “self-fulfilling prophecy.” Now, unintentionally, it’s coming true.
China has the most to gain from Trump’s ongoing European tariffs war