A new joint report by the Bruegel think tank and the Kiel Institute has warned that “new Russian aggression in Europe is ‘conceivable’, citing NATO claims that Moscow could be ‘ready to attack within three to ten years’.”
According to official data, “the US has over 80,000 American servicemen on the continent, which would be at least tripled in case of foreign aggression.” However, concerns are rising over “an American disengagement, particularly after Washington sidelined European leaders in negotiations with Russia on a deal with Ukraine.”
Despite speculation, “the new US Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed withdrawal speculations,” but pressure remains for “Eu to increase its military autonomy.”
Conscription Back on a Large Scale?
“Europe’s national armies have a combined force of about 1.5 million personnel – much more than the current US force in Eu.” However, the report states that if Washington withdraws, “Eu would need an additional 300,000 servicemen or around 50 brigades.”
Co-author Alexandr Burilkov tells Euronews that this increase would be achieved partially through “conscription” and “the development of large and well-trained reserves,” similar to the US National Guard.
Burilkov adds that “as Eu’s military force lacks coordination and unified command, ‘it’s very much necessary to introduce a system that would increase the quantity of the available personnel and also the resilience of that system’.”
Huge Concentration of Land Force Needed in the Baltics
To prevent “a hypothetical Russian breakthrough in the Baltics,” the report highlights that a European army would require “1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles and 700 artillery pieces, as well as a million 155mm shells for the first three months of high-intensity combat.”
However, these numbers “exceed the current combat power of French, German, Italian and British land forces combined.”
Additionally, “drone production would also need to be scaled up to about 2,000 long-range loitering munitions every year to match Russia’s numbers.”
Burilkov notes that “the Russians, in the past two years, have put their economy and their society largely on a war footing. They benefit from a whole lot of leftover infrastructure and equipment from Soviet times when the Red Army was actually colossal.” He emphasizes that “they produced more than 1500 tanks per year. Thousands of armoured vehicles, hundreds of artillery pieces. We should try to create a military parity between Eu and Russia, which would maintain this deterrence without even having to necessarily resort to nuclear deterrence.”
With or Without America, ‘Europe Needs More Military Capabilities’
Luigi Scazzieri, from the Centre for European Reform, tells Euronews that “Europeans need to step up their defence whether the Americans leave or not.”
“To generate credible deterrence, you need to have more capabilities, particularly those on which we rely most on the US: Long-range missiles, aerial defences, aerial supply, air surveillance and transportation, for example.”
Harmonizing European defense efforts through “collective arms procurement, common armaments, unified logistics, and integrated military units” is key, but without “those capabilities and numbers,” it will not be enough.
Regarding a potential European army, however, Scazzieri is skeptical: “It’s very difficult. But it could be an army of Europeans, rather than an actual European army.”
‘Extend French Nuclear Shield and Develop European Sky Shield’
Not all analysts agree that more troops are needed. Nicolas Gros-Verheyde, a defense and foreign policy journalist, tells Euronews: “With 1.5 million soldiers in service, you don’t need 300,000 more, you need to use them in the right places.”
He suggests that “Europeans could consider transforming their rotational presence as NATO forces into permanent military power bases in the countries closest to Russia.”
“Why not a maritime base in Constanza (Romania) and a land base between Poland and Lithuania, near the Suwalki corridor? It would also be useful to plan a presence in Moldova against the Russian forces in Transnistria.”
Another method to boost European deterrence, he argues, would be “extending the French nuclear shield.”
“In the same spirit, France should stop resisting the anti-missile defense project launched by the Germans (European Sky Shield Initiative). The two devices are fully compatible.”
France, however, has been critical of the initiative, arguing that “the current European Sky Shield plan relies too much on non-European equipment and technology.”
Germany Could Lead European Military Budget Rise
The Bruegel-Kiel report suggests that “a way to increase Europe’s armaments in this way would be to increase its military budget by between €125bn and €250bn annually (or 3.5% of GDP) in the short term.”
This spending would be “funded through debt initiatives.”
As the second-largest NATO contributor, Germany “should play a pivotal role by taking charge of at least half of that budget, increasing its defence spending from €80 billion to €140 billion a year.”
Burilkov says that the feasibility of this increase “will largely depend on the type of government that will lead Germany following the recent general election.”
“Once we have a clearer idea of what the mood is in Berlin, we can see to what extent this can be configured. The thing is that of course there is political will, like there never has been in the past for collective European action.”
More European Coordination Means Less Military Spending
Despite the anticipated surge in military expenditures, the report insists that “a coordinated European approach would drive prices down in the long term.”
“Larger orders should mean that production processes become more efficient, bringing down unit prices. However, a rapid demand increase will certainly drive up prices in the short term.”
The report warns that “failure to coordinate means much higher costs and individual efforts will likely be insufficient to deter the Russian military.”
An existing framework for joint military purchases is “the EDIRPA, the European Defence Industry Reinforcement Programme,” set to be replaced by “the European Defence Industry Program in December 2025.”
The allocated budget is expected to be “€1.5 billion.”
The European Court of Auditors, however, has called for “a more substantial injection for the EU to be able to meet its targets.”
Warren Buffett’s billion-dollar secret revealed: Why he’s hoarding cash and betting big on Japan