Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman offered a take on President Donald Trump’s aggressive new tariff strategy this weekend, arguing that the market’s sharp negative reaction reflects fear of execution failure rather than ideological opposition to the tariffs themselves.
In a thread posted to X (formerly Twitter), Ackman dissected the difference between what Trump initially presented — “reciprocal tariffs” — and the reality, in which the actual, finalized U.S. tariffs are actually much higher than those imposed by trading partners.
“The market responded favorably… when Trump referred to ‘reciprocal tariffs’ … It was only when he put up a chart showing the actual tariffs that the markets plunged,” Ackman explained.
A High-Stakes Gambit With Global Implications
The U.S. stock market has experienced significant volatility in recent days amid growing uncertainty over Trump’s revived “America First” trade agenda, particularly steep tariffs on Chinese, European, and Mexican goods. The S&P 500 Index (SPY) has fallen more than 9% over the past week, erasing several months of gains.
At the heart of the selloff is a question of strategy. Trump is returning to his tried-and-true Art of the Deal methodology: Make an aggressive first offer to extract favorable concessions. While this might be effective in real estate or bilateral negotiations, its application to global trade has injected what many find to be an uncomfortable level of uncertainty into already jittery financial markets.
Execution Risk at the Core of Market Fears
Ackman pushed back on narratives suggesting Wall Street is ideologically opposed to rebuilding the U.S. industrial base. Instead, he argued, investors are reacting to the execution risk of Trump’s approach.
“If the strategy fails, tariffs remain elevated, and supply chains suffer — the U.S. economy could tip into a recession.”
Ackman, a frequent commentator on macroeconomic issues, is known for balancing bullish long-term outlooks with caution around short-term instability. His investment decisions often reflect a belief in structural reform, disciplined capital allocation, and the importance of narrative clarity in leadership.
A Track Record of Timing and Strategy
In 2020, Ackman famously turned a $27 million credit hedge into a $2.6 billion profit during the early days of the COVID-19 crash, citing his belief that the government’s lack of preparation would spook markets. Now, he appears to be betting that Trump’s strategy will work — eventually — if the market and global economy hold steady.
‘Patriotic’ Patience and Adaptive Leadership
Ackman concluded with both words of caution and a call to action. The situation, he noted, remains too fluid to declare victory or failure. Yet he emphasized that great leadership requires course correction when facts change — and hinted that Trump is capable of adjusting as needed.
“We have seen Trump do this before. … Based on the early read, his strategy appears to be working.”
His closing sentiment — that supporting a stable market hand is a “patriotic” act — offers a rare fusion of financial pragmatism and political messaging. It positions Wall Street not as an opponent of trade reform, but as a potential ally, provided Trump’s administration can thread the needle between negotiation and economic risk.
Monday Could Bring a Shift
As of Saturday, reports indicate that multiple countries — including Vietnam, and Israel — have opened backchannel talks with U.S. trade officials to avoid being swept up in the tariffs. This led Ackman to speculate:
“I would therefore not be surprised to wake up Monday with an announcement from the President that he was postponing the implementation of the tariffs to give him time to make deals.”
Whether China and the European Union follow suit remains uncertain.
Markets, meanwhile, await Monday with bated breath. Will Trump signal moderation, or double down on tariffs? For Ackman — and for many watching from Wall Street to Brussels to Beijing — the outcome may define the trajectory of global markets for the rest of the year.
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